Life Expectancy Estimation with Breast Cancer: Bias of the Declining Exponential Function and an Alternative to Its Use

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy gain (LEG) is an outcome measure commonly estimated with a declining exponential function in a Markov model. The accuracy of such estimates has not been objectively evaluated. PURPOSE: To compare LEGs from declining exponential function estimates with those calculated from population data, using published screening mammography studies as examples. METHOD: SEER-based population data are used to compare LEG calculation with declining exponential function estimation and empiric population data in a new model, the "nested" Markov. RESULTS: Analyses of the LEG of mammographic screening based on the declining exponential function significantly overestimate LEGs for younger women and underestimate them for older women. Because of offsetting errors, all-age analyses paradoxically appear accurate. CONCLUSION: Declining exponential function estimates of LEGs for chronic diseases with low mortality rates and long time horizons are liable to significant bias, especially with limited age cohorts.