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An approach that links a Monte-Carlo simulation based reliability program with the water treatment process behavior and performance model is presented for uncertainty analysis of the conventional water treatment plant (WTP) design. The expected mass concentration of suspended solids (SS) in the effluent water is employed as a measurement of system reliability. The approach for uncertainty analysis of a WTP is illustrated with a hypothetical case study. The parameters contributing significantly to the variability of SS concentration in the effluent water are identified. From an operational viewpoint, the variability in effluent water quality resulting from uncertainty in the system parameters is investigated. Also, improvement in the reliability of WTP using modified design parameters is investigated along with its cost implications. From the results, a method to calculate a set of safety factors corresponding to various performance reliability levels is proposed.
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Gupta et al. (2006) studied this question.
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