Part one of this series discussed how the more widely recognised factors such as an ageing population and re-admissions only contribute to a baseline increase in emergency admissions. Short stay admissions (mainly zero day stay) account for the bulk of the increase. Most diagnoses appear to show a roughly linear trend over time. These are unable to explain the observed cyclical events occurring about every 4–6 years in medicine, and even longer cycles in surgical and trauma admissions.
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Rod Jones (2009) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: