Are soil conservation and “No Net Land Take” suitable for urban development? modeling and assessment in two French cases

• NNLT will be a strong constraint on planning policies until 2050 and beyond. • The successful application of the NNLT depends on the quality of the soil and its suitability for construction. • The impact on urban development can be modelled and simulated using cellular automata. • NNLT does not impose any significant global restrictions on development policies. • NNLT locally creates inequalities that prompt a rethink of compensation policies between municipalities. The No Net Land Take (NNLT) policy seeks to halt the expansion of urbanised land to preserve soil quality and biodiversity. In France, this involves achieving zero net increase in artificial surfaces by 2050, with a mid-term objective of halving land take by 2030. This study examines the implications of NNLT for urban development and environmental preservation through a case study of two southeastern French territories: Grand Rovaltain and Aire Gapençaise. A data-driven cellular automata (CA) simulation model is employed to explore multiple development scenarios. This model integrates soil quality classifications (from 1 to 5) to assess the spatial dynamics of land use under NNLT constraints. The results indicate that while the policy restricts the spatial distribution of new developments, it does not inhibit overall housing and economic growth. Instead, development pressures tend to concentrate in rural and suburban transition zones, particularly those already vulnerable to sprawl. Soil quality thresholds significantly shape the spatial allocation of new growth, reinforcing the role of environmental parameters in guiding sustainable urban planning. The study offers three main contributions. First, it demonstrates the effectiveness of CA-based models in visualising land use outcomes under ecological constraints. Second, it highlights the potential to reconcile socio-economic development with environmental protection. Third, it stresses the importance of territorial dialogue to mitigate spatial inequalities that may emerge from the rigid application of NNLT policy. Overall, the study underscores the value of simulation-based planning tools in informing land use decisions and balancing competing territorial objectives under ambitious sustainability frameworks.