Narco-trafficking caused land-use change: the exceptional case of Costa Rica

Costa Rica has recently transitioned from a minor pass-through location to a major transshipment hub connecting South American cocaine sources to transatlantic markets. This study investigated how much direct and indirect land-use change (LUC) was caused by narco-trafficking throughout the biodiverse Osa Peninsula and surrounding Area of Osa Conservation (ACOSA) from 1986 to 2019. Within 3 years of increased narco-trafficking activity, rates of forest and oil palm change were on average 8.76% and 29.5% slower than in control locations, respectively. This translated into 178.5 more hectares of forest cover and 2,013 less hectares of oil palm during the study period. Moreover, this effect persisted for forested areas for the duration of the study period with an overall 5.06% slower rate of change. Narco-trafficking intertwines with legal economies in Costa Rica in complex ways and manifests as spatially concentrated ‘narco-degradation’ rather than large-scale ‘narco-deforestation’ observed in other conflict regions.