What does this research mean for the field?

Challenger parties make substantially fewer election promises than established parties, likely due to their lack of governmental experience. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.CONTRADICTORY. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.CHALLENGES_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To determine whether challenger parties make more campaign promises than established parties or if their lack of governing experience leads to fewer pledges.

September 10, 2026European Journal of Political ResearchOpen Access

Overpromising populists? Why challenger parties make fewer, not more, promises than established parties

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Authors

MVMathias Bukh VestergaardAarhus University

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Implication

Comparative text analysis reveals fewer election promises among challenger parties than established parties in Western democracies, suggesting inexperience limits manifesto pledges.

Key Points

To determine whether challenger parties make more campaign promises than established parties or if their lack of governing experience leads to fewer pledges.
Analyzed a dataset of over one million content-coded quasi-sentences from election manifestos across Western democracies.
Compared pledge frequencies between established parties and challenger parties without prior government participation.
Challenger parties made substantially fewer election promises in their campaign manifestos than established parties.
The lower volume of pledges among challenger parties was primarily associated with their lack of governmental experience.

Cite This Study

Mathias Bukh Vestergaard (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa27a2a58559d80afc72d19 https://doi.org/10.1017/s1475676526101716

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Implication

Comparative text analysis reveals fewer election promises among challenger parties than established parties in Western democracies, suggesting inexperience limits manifesto pledges.

Overpromising populists? Why challenger parties make fewer, not more, promises than established parties

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Overpromising populists? Why challenger parties make fewer, not more, promises than established parties

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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