Urban transformation in a Himalayan Metropolitan City: Socio-spatial dynamics and planning implications from Srinagar, India

Srinagar is one of the largest metropolitan centres in the Indian Himalayan region, with a population exceeding one million. This study examines urban transformation between 1985 and 2025 using an integrated socio-spatial framework combining remote sensing and socio-economic datasets. It analyses built-up expansion, land valuation, population change, spatial accessibility, and tourism trends to understand long-term metropolitan restructuring. The results show a substantial increase in built-up area from 7930 ha in 1985 to 19,956 ha in 2025, accompanied by a continuous decline in non built-up land. Urban growth has evolved from a predominantly compact core toward a more dispersed and corridor-oriented spatial pattern, with expansion occurring in association with transport connectivity, accessibility gradients, and peripheral land-use change. Land values represented by official circle rates across residential, commercial, and agricultural categories increased substantially between 2013 and 2026, indicating rising land valuation and spatial differentiation in development pressure. Population increased from 126,344 in 1911 to 1,219,516 in 2011 and is projected to reach 1,795,174 by 2031, while the level of urbanisation increased from 61.76% to 99.45%. Tourist arrivals increased from 10,580 in 1951 to 2,986,780 in 2024, demonstrating the growing significance of tourism within the regional economy. The findings indicate that Srinagar's urban transformation reflects the interaction of spatial expansion, accessibility, land-market dynamics, demographic change, and tourism rather than population growth alone. The study highlights the need for integrated and regulated urban planning approaches to manage metropolitan expansion in the environmentally sensitive Himalayan region and provides a transferable framework for analysing long term urban dynamics and supporting sustainable urban management in mountain cities.