Natural Gas Price Elasticity and Urban Residential Natural Gas Consumption: Evidence from Provincial Data in China

Natural gas consumption in urban residential buildings is important for household energy affordability and the low-carbon transition of the residential sector. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2020, this study employs a panel regression model to examine the impact of residential natural gas prices (NPs) on per capita natural gas consumption (NGC) in urban residential buildings. We apply the model to estimate price elasticity and analyze the transmission mechanism of energy consumption intensity (EI), while examining the differentiated characteristics of price effects from both regional and urbanization-stage perspectives. The main findings are as follows: (1) NP shows a significantly negative association with residential NGC, with a price elasticity of −1.182; (2) EI serves as a potential transmission channel between NP and NGC, with its indirect effect offsetting 12.5%; (3) heterogeneity analysis shows that price elasticity is statistically significant only in the western region. Across urbanization quartiles, the absolute magnitude of price elasticity is greatest in Q2. This study provides empirical evidence to optimize tiered natural gas pricing, refine targeted subsidy policies, and inform energy utilization policies in urban residential areas.