Sustainable value chain resilience under compound shocks: evidence from GI longan smallholders in Northern Thailand

Smallholder farmers in tropical fruit value chains increasingly face compound climatic, market, and regulatory shocks, yet evidence on how they construct resilience remains scarce. This study examines how Geographical Indication (GI)-recognised longan smallholders in Northern Thailand sustain value chain resilience under such conditions. Drawing on an integrated framework combining livelihood resilience, dynamic capabilities, and sustainable value chain perspectives, survey data from 380 GI-affiliated farmers in Lamphun and Chiang Mai were analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). Livelihood capitals, dynamic capabilities, cooperative engagement, digital traceability adoption, and Bio-Circular-Green practices all positively predicted resilience (R² = 0.411), with dynamic capabilities exerting the strongest effect. Mediation tests confirmed that capabilities and meso-level mechanisms partially transmit these effects. Critically, compound shock exposure weakened the contribution of livelihood capitals but amplified that of dynamic capabilities, indicating that adaptive capacity, rather than resource endowment, becomes decisive under turbulence. fsQCA revealed equifinal pathways whereby capability-driven configurations compensate for limited endowments. The findings extend compound-shock theory to Southeast Asian fruit smallholders and inform policy under Thailand’s Bio-Circular-Green Economy Model, emphasizing capability building, cooperative governance, and digital traceability investment.