Mixed-methods panel study finds extraction difficulty reduces civilian killings by armed groups in resource zones, suggesting geological features shape wartime strategic violence.
How do natural resources affect non-state armed groups’ (NSAGs) strategic decisions? We argue natural resources’ geological characteristics require NSAGs to pursue different strategies. Civilian killings will increase under NSAG competition in the absence of resources, and in zones of active extraction, increasing extraction difficulty should restrain NSAGs from killing civilians. Finally, we expect NSAG competition in extractive contexts to attenuate that restraint. We test our hypotheses using a nested mixed-methods design incorporating municipal panel data spanning 2001–2020, ex-combatant interviews, and case studies. We find support for extraction difficulty effects in active extraction settings and tentative support for moderation by armed-group competition.
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Boyes et al. (2026) studied this question.
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