Computational modeling reveals macroevolutionary speciation and extinction rates across interacting lineages, highlighting mechanisms driving coevolutionary dynamics.
Key Points
To develop a statistical framework capable of quantifying rates of distinct speciation and extinction events occurring synchronously across host and symbiont lineages.
Designed an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework using summary statistics from density curves of pairwise Branch Length Differences (BLenD) derived from time-calibrated cophylogenies.
Formulated two inference tiers: a relative-rate level independent of absolute time frames and an absolute-rate level quantifying events per lineage per million years.
Validated the model and tested its applicability on an empirical cophylogenetic dataset of Batesian mimicry between Pachyrhynchus host weevils and Doliops symbionts.
Demonstrated that both inference levels substantially improve parameter estimation accuracy over prior distributions and provide reliable measures of uncertainty when applied to sufficiently large cophylogenies.
Showed that the relative inference level quantifies six distinct speciation and extinction processes within a system, while the absolute tier enables cross-cophylogeny comparisons.
Confirmed the feasibility of utilizing pairwise branch length differences as informative summary statistics for simulation-based evolutionary inference.