Back to square one? How the circular economy reinforces a growth-oriented development path in a shrinking region

Shrinking cities and regions require development trajectories beyond growth-centric models. This paper examines how circular economy discourse shapes path creation in such contexts through a case study of Satakunta, Finland. Using Evolutionary Governance Theory and path mapping, the study reveals that, despite acknowledging the limits of economic incentives, governance remains constrained by entrenched institutional and discursive dependencies. The circular economy agenda reinforces these by prioritising job creation and business investment over quality-of-life considerations. As a result, the transformative potential of the circular economy in non-growth contexts remains limited, reinforcing rather than challenging the dominant growth paradigm in regional governance.