Integrating single-cell transcriptomics to construct an oncogene-driven prognostic model and elucidate metabolic-immune crosstalk in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths, its progression and treatment heterogeneity are mainly influenced by driver gene and tumor micro-environment (TME) interactions. Nevertheless, the mechanisms of this process at the single-cell level remain unclear. This study integrated TCGA and multi-center single-cell transcriptome data to identify a 575 genes HCC-specific core set, developing a single-cell “oncogene scoring” system to quantify individual carcinogenic activity. This score is significantly elevated in malignant and proliferative T cells and is closely associated with metabolic reprogramming, aberrant cell‒cell communication, and immunosuppressive phenotypes. Based on these characteristics, we constructed a machine learning-based Random Survival Forest (RSF) prognostic model validated in multiple independent cohorts, which classifies patients into distinct risk subtypes. The high-risk group exhibits genomic instability, increased tumor stemness, and immune evasion, while the low-risk group was more sensitive to drugs such as sorafenib. This study highlights the potential pathways by which high oncogenic activity is associated with HCC progression, suggesting a profound link with single-cell metabolic‒immune crosstalk. The constructed RSF model offers a promising computational framework for risk stratification and provides hypothesis-generating insights that may inform future personalized treatment strategies for HCC patients.