What does this research mean for the field?

Inventoried roadless areas and developed lands in the US National Forest System burn at similar rates, demonstrating that the Roadless Area Conservation Rule does not increase wildfire risk. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.CONTRADICTORY. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.CHALLENGES_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To determine whether inventoried roadless areas protected under the Roadless Area Conservation Rule exhibit higher wildfire extent or severity compared to developed, roaded national forest lands.

September 10, 2026Conservation Science and PracticeOpen Access

Roadless status under the Roadless Area Conservation Rule is not associated with increased wildfire in the US National Forest System

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Authors

JKJohn KilbrideOregon State University JJJames F. W. JohnstonUniversity of Oregon RKRobert E. KennedyOregon State University

Discussion

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Implication

Retrospective spatial analysis reveals equivalent annual burn rates between roadless and developed national forest lands, indicating that roadless protections do not elevate regional wildfire risk.

Key Points

To determine whether inventoried roadless areas protected under the Roadless Area Conservation Rule exhibit higher wildfire extent or severity compared to developed, roaded national forest lands.
Analyzed four decades (1984–2023) of spatially explicit wildfire data across the 11 western US states.
Compared the extent of fire and fire severity classes between inventoried roadless areas, roaded/developed national forest lands, and congressionally designated wilderness areas.
From 1984 to 2023, inventoried roadless areas burned at an estimated 1.13 times the annual rate of developed lands (95% CI: 0.92 to 1.36).
From 2014 to 2023, inventoried roadless areas burned at an estimated 0.89 times the annual rate of developed lands (95% CI: 0.70 to 1.17).
Congressionally designated wilderness areas burned at almost double the annual rate of either inventoried roadless areas or developed lands.

Cite This Study

Kilbride et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa27be758559d80afc7568b https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70411

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Implication

Retrospective spatial analysis reveals equivalent annual burn rates between roadless and developed national forest lands, indicating that roadless protections do not elevate regional wildfire risk.

Roadless status under the Roadless Area Conservation Rule is not associated with increased wildfire in the US National Forest System

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Roadless status under the Roadless Area Conservation Rule is not associated with increased wildfire in the US National Forest System

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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