Assessment of seismic hazard in choosing of a radioactive waste disposal location

The authors appreciate participation of V. N. Tatarinov, Head of Laboratory at the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in this research. Development of nuclear energy engineering is impossible without handling the problem of disposal of high-level radioactive waste RAW in deep geological formations. When studying the problem of underground isolation of RAW, it is necessary to account for probable strong earthquakes in the area. So, the task of localization of a strong earthquake is an important part of assessment of seismic hazard when selecting a place for underground isolation of RAW. The Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences has developed the original algorithm FCAZ (Fuzzy Clustering And Zoning), enabling forecasting strong earthquakes based on clusterization of epicenters of weak earthquakes. Using FCAZ, identification and zoning of probable magnitude М ≥ 5 earthquakes in the Caucasus area has been implemented. The detected potential high-seismic earthquakes are well consistent with location of epicenters of historical and instrumentally identified earthquakes with the magnitude М ≥ 5. This tells for the reliability of FCAZ. The reliability of the obtained results is proved also by the consistency with the early zoning made using gravimetry and geological methods. Application of FCAZ is advisable in choosing locations of RAW disposal at the first hierarchical level of the IAEA classification.The study was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Project No. 15-05-07436.