Does bioenergy innovation strengthen the effectiveness of nationally determined contributions in mitigating CO₂ emissions? Evidence from developed and developing countries

Innovations in bioenergy are a key tool for reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and are critical to achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. However, existing research largely relies on single-equation specifications in which innovation is treated as exogenous to emissions, with little testing of their joint determination. This study addresses this by simultaneously estimating the relationship using established econometric methods. The balanced panel dataset covers 49 countries (26 developed, 23 developing) from 2000 to 2023 and examines CO₂ emissions per capita and bioenergy patents together. Results indicate statistically significant effects in both directions: reducing CO₂ emissions reduces bioenergy innovation, and larger increases in CO₂ emissions reduce bioenergy patenting. NDC commitments trigger bioenergy patenting in developing economies but have a negative net effect in developed economies, consistent with reduced policy effectiveness in countries with more mature innovation systems. Contrary to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), the relationship between income and emissions suggests that emissions may rise again as income continues to increase. Many developing economies exhibit high biomass potential but low institutional capacity. Policy approaches should be development–sensitive, highlighting frontier research and development (R&D) and innovation diversification in developed economies, while stimulating targeted technology transfer, NDC-linked finance, and R&D capacity building in developing economies.