A Transmission Model of the 2010 Cholera Epidemic in Haiti

Letters20 September 2011A Transmission Model of the 2010 Cholera Epidemic in HaitiAndrea Rinaldo, PhD, Melanie Blokesch, PhD, Enrico Bertuzzo, PhD, Lorenzo Mari, PhD, Lorenzo Righetto, PhD, Megan Murray, MD, Marino Gatto, PhD, Renato Casagrandi, PhD, and Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, PhDAndrea Rinaldo, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, Melanie Blokesch, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, Enrico Bertuzzo, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, Lorenzo Mari, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, Lorenzo Righetto, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, Megan Murray, MDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, Marino Gatto, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, Renato Casagrandi, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this author, and Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, PhDFrom Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Search for more papers by this authorAuthor, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-155-6-201109200-00018 SectionsAboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail TO THE EDITOR:The article by Tuite and colleagues (1) proposed a spatially explicit scheme reproducing the sequence and the timing of regional cholera epidemics through waterborne and person-to-person transmission of cholera. Two additional modeling studies of the ongoing Haiti cholera outbreak and its controls were independently and almost simultaneously published (2, 3). In particular, a similar transmission model, based on a finer spatial detail of the affected communities and on alternative descriptions of hydrologic and human mobility drivers of pathogen dispersal (4, 5), has been likewise applied to the unfolding Haiti epidemic (3). Despite differences in the assumptions, the ...References1. Tuite AR, Tien J, Eisenberg M, Earn DJ, Ma J, Fisman DN. Cholera epidemic in Haiti, 2010: using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions. Ann Intern Med. 2011;154:593-601. [PMID: 21383314] LinkGoogle Scholar2. Andrews JR, Basu S. Transmission dynamics and control of cholera in Haiti: an epidemic model. Lancet. 2011;377:1248-55. [PMID: 21414658] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar3. Bertuzzo E, Mari L, Righetto L, Gatto M, Casagrandi R, Blokesch M, et al. Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak. Geophys Res Lett. 2011;38:L06403. CrossrefGoogle Scholar4. Bertuzzo E, Gatto M, Maritan A, Azaele S, Rodriguez-Iturbe I, Rinaldo A. On the space-time evolution of a cholera epidemics. Water Resour Res. 2008;44:W01424. CrossrefGoogle Scholar5. Bertuzzo E, Casagrandi R, Gatto M, Rodriguez-Iturbe I, Rinaldo A. On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics. J R Soc Interface. 2010;7:321-33. [PMID: 19605400] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAffiliations: From Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy; and Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.Disclosures: None disclosed. PreviousarticleNextarticle Advertisement FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsSee AlsoCholera Epidemic in Haiti, 2010: Using a Transmission Model to Explain Spatial Spread of Disease and Identify Optimal Control Interventions Ashleigh R. Tuite , Joseph Tien , Marisa Eisenberg , David J.D. Earn , Junling Ma , and David N. Fisman A Transmission Model of the 2010 Cholera Epidemic in Haiti Ashleigh R. Tuite and David N. 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