Method for Uncertainty and Probability Estimation of Avoided Impacts from Information and Communication Technology Solutions

Solutions provided by Information and Communication Technology (ICT) may help avoid environmental impacts. Several methodologies exist by which the avoided impact can be estimated. However, so far there is a lack of treatment of the uncertainty within the calculations. Especially the uncertainty range of the rebound effects compared to others is not part of existing methods. As such, there is no way of knowing how large the errors can be - for different elements of the equation for avoided impacts - while still being able to draw conclusions regarding the benefit of the ICT Solution. Here is presented a complete method for simplified assessment of ICT Solutions avoided impact potential including uncertainty and probability calculations. An example of gas pipe inspection, using either manual inspection or 5G drone inspection, is shown, which demonstrates the usefulness and efficiency of the proposed method. When the relative rebound effect is 55%, the target technology for pipe inspection is shown to avoid impact compared to the reference technology for gas pipe inspection. Sensitivity factors much larger than 1 for impacts related to the use of vehicles are shown to overestimate contributions to the total uncertainty. It should be explored how emerging standards will affect the practice in the area of avoided impact calculations.