Field Goal Range: How a Cultural Reference Point Distorts Performance and Decision‐Making

Do professionals over‐prepare salient features of their jobs? Does this distort managerial decisions? We study NFL field goal kicking, where the opponent's 35‐yard line (YL35), known as ‘field goal range’, has long served as a reference point in coaching and broadcasting. Using all field goal attempts from 1999 to 2025, we find that kickers exhibited an anomalous success spike at the 35‐yard line, together with a decrease at the 34‐yard line (YL34). We show that this anomaly distorts managerial‐decision making: on fourth down, coaches attempt field goals about 10 percentage points less often at YL35 than at YL34, even though YL35 has a higher probability of being converted, thus reducing expected points for their teams. The results indicate that professionals over‐prepare salient features of their jobs with real effects on performance, and that this distorts managerial decisions.