全球温室气体减排已有一定的科学认知和国际政治意愿。由于涉及经济代价和 发展权益，全球温室气体减排的国际制度框架均难于兼顾公平与可持续性双重目 标。以气候安全的允许排放量为全球碳预算总量，设为刚性约束，可以确保碳预算 方案的可持续性；将有限的全球碳预算总额以人均方式初始分配到每个地球村民， 满足基本需求，可以确保碳预算方案的公平性。根据历史排放和未来需求进行碳预 算转移支付，设计相应的资金机制，使碳预算方案具有效率配置特征。不同于分时 段、临时目标的《京都议定书》途径，这样的碳预算方案是一个全面涵盖的整体性 一揽子方案。然而，由于气候变化问题已泛政治化，许多技术性问题需要国际政治 与外交谈判才能解决。 关键词: 碳预算方案 公平 可持续性 国际气候制度 A worldwide consensus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been reached at the technical and political level. However, as the issue involves economic costs and developmental interests, the international institutional framework for addressing global greenhouse gas emissions has consistently failed to balance the demands of equity and sustainability. But the sustainability of carbon budget proposal is undoubtedly achievable if the total global carbon budget (the total amount of carbon permitted by climate security) is made an absolute constraint. If an initial allocation is made among all members of the global village on a per capita basis, a limited total budget could not only meet basic needs but also ensure equity. Taking into account historical emission levels and future needs, we should implement carbon budget transfer payments and devise a corresponding financial mechanism to ensure efficient allocation. Unlike the phase‐by‐phase progress and provisional goals of the Kyoto Protocol, the carbon budget proposal presented here is a comprehensive and holistic package. Due to the politicization of the climate change question, however, many technical issues can only be worked out through international political and diplomatic negotiations.
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Ying Chen (2010) studied this question.