Interpreting the collapse of the northern cod stock from survey and catch data

Sequential population analysis reconstructions of the northern cod (Gadus morhus) stock using survey and catch data formed the basis for the scientific advice for substantial reductions in catch quotas in the late 1980s. However, the model failed to provide acceptable reconstructions of the population in subsequent stock assessments when data for the 1990s were added. The model assumes constant age-independent instantaneous rate of natural mortality, accurate catch reporting, and a constant linear relationship between the survey index at age and the population size at age. It seems likely that one or more of these assumptions failed to hold around the time of the collapse. Diagnostic studies were carried out to determine the magnitude of the departure from the assumptions required to allow the model to fit the data. Information related to changes in natural mortality, fishing activity, and survey catchability is reviewed to evaluate the plausibility of departures from model assumptions of the magnitude estimated. It is concluded that unreported deaths caused by the offshore fishery may be most plausible as the main contributing factor to lack of model fit but that factors such as increased natural mortality, and possibly changes in survey catchability, also played a role.