Dilemma of Co2 Mitigation: Effects of Climate, Co2, and Technological Progress on Rice Yields

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Rice feeds billions of populations, and its yields are sensitive to climate change, carbon dioxide (CO[Formula: see text], and technological progress. This study estimates a model of these effects using Asian rice yield data merged with free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experimental data. A three-stage generalized least squares model is developed to quantify their effects on mean rice yields and their variance. The results show that CO2 concentration has significantly contributed to increased rice yields, accounting for 16–26% of observed yield growth over 1990–2015. This indicates that if significant CO2 mitigation occurs, the CO2 fertilization effect will diminish, inducing a yield reduction. This finding suggests that increased agricultural research and development investments are needed to overcome not only adverse climate change effects but also to counteract CO2 mitigation effects on rice yields.