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This paper explains the effects of performance and chance in the results obtained by teams in the matches of the FIFA World Cup Germany 2006. The research is based on linear regression analysis, mean comparison test and logit multinomial. Results point out that performance is a relevant variable for explaining the points obtained by teams in the first round of the competition, when the system of play is the league system. However, in the second round of the competition, when the system of play is the knockout system, the role of performance is less important: there are not statistically significant differences in the performance obtained by winners and losers.
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Carlos Lago‐Peñas (2007) studied this question.
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