Resources Rather than Needs: A State-Centered Model of Welfare Policymaking

This study examines the states' policymaking for the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program. It develops a public good model of welfare policymaking focused on changes in the maximum benefit level that determines how much assistance poor families receive. A pooled time-series analysis is used to test the model's expectations. This examination confirms some expectations of the public good theory while challenging others. Changes in state revenues strongly influence states' decisions about AFDC benefit levels. However, neither changes in citizens' income nor changes in the cost of living have a significant effect on states' decisions. These findings question the public good theory's focus on transfers from private income and its characterization of concern for the living conditions of poor families as the central motive for welfare transfers. They indicate that the explanation of AFDC policymaking should be focused on the role of state policymaking processes, particularly the budgetary process.