Financial and environmental evaluation of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system upgrades for energy transition in Northern Germany

The energy consumption of buildings and facilities significantly contributes to carbon emissions, highlighting the crucial role of efficient Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems in the energy transition. This paper evaluates and discusses the financial feasibility and environmental benefits of upgrading a heating system based on waste-to-energy district heat. The study compares an obsolete system with an upgraded system using the same technology and to a fully electrified heat pump. The comparison is made using the Equivalent Annual Cost (EAC) and the carbon emission intensity (kg CO2e/m2). We demonstrate that a heat pump would potentially reduce carbon emissions by 56% but with an annual cost 15.6% higher in comparison to the actual water-to-air system. Upgrading the actual system to a new and more efficient one has potential for reducing carbon emissions by around 45% with similar costs to the heat pump option. It is highlighted that the option for using a heat pump has potential to reduce carbon emissions, as is pointed out in the scientific literature, but it is still not financially attractive for customers to quit the old systems. Results justify the development of policies to stimulate the substitution of obsolete heating systems with incentives to make it financially attractive for the customers.