Identification of Cyclone Exposure Regimes in the Southwestern Caribbean Offshore Using Self-Organizing Maps: Implications for Risk-Informed Offshore Wind Planning

Offshore wind development in the Colombian Caribbean requires characterization of tropical cyclone exposure to support climate-resilient planning, yet objective regime classifications for this basin remain limited. This study develops an unsupervised Self-Organizing Map (SOM) framework using the NOAA HURDAT2 best-track database for 1970–2023, comprising 668 six-hourly observations from 103 storms and nine physically interpretable features describing position, intensity, kinematics, and seasonality. A 4 × 4 SOM combined with hierarchical Ward clustering identified four cyclone exposure regimes: R0, late-season slow north-eastward disturbances near San Andrés (11.5%); R1, fast westward mature tropical storms across the central Caribbean (62.0%); R2, slow north-westward disturbances off Central America (21.9%); and R3, rare major hurricanes crossing the central Caribbean (4.6%, seven storms; historical mean recurrence interval 7.7 years). R3 exhibited mean maximum sustained winds of 67.8 m/s and a minimum central pressure of 938.5 hPa, with peak winds reaching 79.7 m/s. The results provide a complementary historical hazard characterization layer for offshore wind planning, supporting risk-informed spatial and operational assessment. However, the identified regimes do not represent wind-resource conditions or probabilistic design return periods and should therefore be integrated with site-specific wind, wave, and structural assessments.