Who Gets Selected in Rigid Hierarchies? Early Happiness at Work and Competitive Leadership Selection

Leadership selection is typically attributed to ability, performance, and dispositional advantage. Yet evaluative processes may also reflect how individuals experience and engage with their work over time. We tested whether early happiness at work prospectively predicts selection into objectively assigned leadership roles under formalized selection and pronounced role scarcity in the Korea Military Academy. First‐ and second‐year cohort cadets ( N = 444) reported happiness at work in 2023, and competitive leadership appointments were assessed approximately 2 years later in the fourth year. Leadership positions comprised roughly 4% of each cohort. Penalized logistic regression showed that higher happiness at work predicted a greater likelihood of leadership selection (OR = 1.68, 95% CI [1.04, 2.72]), controlling for baseline cumulative performance score, gender, and cohort. Among the subcomponents, affective organizational commitment significantly predicted leadership selection (OR = 1.77, 95% CI [1.07, 2.94]), whereas engagement (OR = 1.63, 95% CI [1.00, 2.66]) and job satisfaction (OR = 1.34, 95% CI [0.85, 2.14]) did not reach the conventional 0.05 significance threshold. Taken together, the findings suggest that early happiness at work may play a meaningful role in shaping who is ultimately selected into positions of authority, even in systems structured to privilege meritocratic evaluation.