Territorial autonomy as territorial reordering: sequencing post-conflict governance in Aceh and Mindanao

Territorial autonomy can stabilise post-conflict orders under specific institutional and territorial conditions. Conceptualising autonomy as uneven territorial reordering, this article identifies five determinants shaping whether autonomy reduces or reallocates violence: external guarantees, legal codification, demilitarisation, inclusive governance and fiscal redistribution. Through process tracing of Aceh and Mindanao, the article argues that autonomy stabilises peace when these domains are sequenced as mutually reinforcing mechanisms, but becomes fragile when implementation is asynchronous. By linking credible-commitment theory with institutional peacebuilding, the study explains how autonomy stabilises negotiated settlements and reorders authority, coercion, representation and resources.