Right up my alley: Local radical right success, contextual alignment, and immigration attitudes in Sweden

Electoral success of radical right parties is often argued to normalize previously stigmatized anti-immigration attitudes. Yet, it remains unclear whether such normalization reflects genuine within-individual persuasion or shifts in the local climate of political expression. We address this question by linking highly disaggregated district-level vote shares to individual-level panel survey data from Sweden (2018–2022), a period marked by sustained growth and partial normalization of the Sweden Democrats. Cross-sectional analyses reveal pronounced contextual patterns: Restrictive immigration attitudes are more prevalent in districts with higher local radical right support, particularly among voters who do not support the party, while core supporters remain comparatively stable. However, first-difference panel analyses provide little evidence that changes in local radical right support are associated with attitudinal change. The findings suggest that what appears as normalization in ecological analyses is more consistent with contextual alignment than with rapid persuasion, clarifying the micro-foundations of radical right normalization.