Multi-scenario modeling study reveals spatial mismatches between scrap supplies and clean electricity in China, highlighting the need for tailored provincial steel decarbonization pathways.
Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking underpins China's low-carbon steel transition, while uneven regional resources and energy conditions greatly constrain its low-carbon development. This study adopts a province-level material flow analysis-capacity integration framework with multi-scenario modeling to explore targeted regional decarbonization pathways. Although national scrap supply generally meets domestic EAF demand, severe provincial mismatches occur: major producers, including Hebei (36.3 Mt) and Guangdong (32.0 Mt), heavily rely on interprovincial scrap transfers. Low-carbon electricity-rich regions are spatially separated from core EAF hubs, driving large disparities in provincial electricity carbon intensity (0.101–0.171 kg CO 2 kWh −1 by 2060) and heterogeneous EAF emissions ranging from 69.6 to 92.7 Mt across scenarios. This study highlights dynamic scrap circulation, renewable energy matching, and differentiated provincial policies to coordinate national steel decarbonization.
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Shen et al. (2026) studied this question.
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