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September 14, 2026Small Business EconomicsOpen Access

Innovative entrepreneurial entry over the business cycle: variation by form of innovation and country economic development

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Authors

PSPaul SteffensKKKim Klyver

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Overview

Cross-national longitudinal study reveals how business cycles shape startup entry patterns across 66 countries, highlighting distinct mechanisms for radical versus incremental innovation.

Key Points

  • To examine how business cycle fluctuations influence entrepreneurial entry across varying degrees of innovation and national economic development levels.
  • Analyzed Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data tracking entrepreneurial entry across 66 countries from 2003 to 2018.
  • Evaluated entry patterns across major macroeconomic events, including the recovery from the dot-com crash and the Global Financial Crisis.
  • Discontinuously innovative entry exhibits a counter-cyclic disruption pattern, increasing during economic downturns.
  • Incrementally innovative entry aligns with a pro-cyclic prosperity pull, whereas imitative entry follows a counter-cyclic recession push, with both effects moderated by a country's level of economic development.

Cite This Study

Steffens et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b3ee0926e14a848b3440https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-026-01270-z
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