The article deals with the concept of scenario planning. Scenarios, as opposed to usual prediction , are focused on the identification of discontinuities in the development and help the cope with sudden changes and noticeably contribute to its survival. Contemporary of scenarios construction work on need to ensure flexibility of the strategic plan and get firm ready for a quick reaction when set trigger points specifying the corresponding scenario to pass. Processing of business environment information, known as Business Intelligence, necessity. Based on the methodological platform, it describes in detail the stepwise of scenario construction. The very process of scenario elaboration goes through six basic , Identification of risk factors and determination of their importance; Selection of key risks , according to the company’s opinion, fundamentally influence fulfilment of strategic goals; of basic scenarios and testing their consistency; Determination of probability of occurrence and Performing a “gap analysis” for the sake of determining the extent of goals fulfilment. are various types of scenarios which might be respected due to the development of environment introduced and discussed. Respecting the indicated risk factors and influence on key risks of the financial plan, the spread of scenarios is being drafted. It is typical business practice to work with 3–4 scenarios. Besides determining the impact of a risk on the ’s performance (the rate of fulfilling set strategic goals), the probability assessment of each is also necessary. Outputs from constructed scenarios are to be worked up into strategic option, which may be used as a qualified base for the strategic decision- process.The practical application shows how the methodology used raises flexibility in planning of the firm.
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Fotr et al. (2014) studied this question.