Impact of Zero-Waste City Pilot Policies on Urban Energy Consumption Intensity: Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

To scientifically assess the energy-saving effects of China’s zero-waste city pilot (ZWCP) policies and provide empirical evidence and policy insights for advancing pilot policies and accelerating energy conservation and emission reduction goals, this study selected 274 cities in China from 2010 to 2022 as the research sample, employing a double machine learning model to empirically analyze the impact of pilot policies on urban energy consumption intensity. The research results demonstrate that the ZWCP policies significantly reduced energy consumption intensity in pilot areas. Channel analysis reveals that this policy exerted a restraining effect on energy consumption intensity through industrial structure upgrading, green technology innovation, and enhanced environmental awareness. Heterogeneity analysis shows that policy effects were more pronounced in non-urban agglomeration regions, inland areas, and small-to-medium-sized cities. This study provides crucial decision-making references for the promotion and implementation of ZWCP policies during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.