Mathematical prediction model for ground vibrations of nearby territories induced by high dam flood discharge

Ground vibration induced by high dam flood discharge is a relatively easily ignored but quite considerable environmental problem for the nearby territories. In this paper, Xiangjiaba hydro project was utilized as an instance to study the vibration impact of water releases on the ground of the near-dam zone. Based on in situ observation and hydroelastic model designed specially, the mathematical prediction models of ground vibration by means of the regression analysis and neural network had been established and verified. It was concluded that the prediction accuracy of the neural network was better than that of the regression analysis, and among the neural network models, the Elman neural network was an optimal method to complete the simulation of the nonlinear prediction system of ground vibration with the high prediction accuracy. Finally, the flood discharge operation regime for vibration reduction which could be applied in practical engineering was put forward through the prediction model of Elman neural network. The main achievements of this paper are of great use to predict ground vibration magnitude and manage practical operation regime during the flood discharge period for avoiding excessive vibration intensity of ground.