Equity in forecasting climate: can science save the world's poor?

For the past ten years, the role of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) in decreasing the vulnerability of poor populations in many countries to climate variability and change has been discussed in the scholarly literature and policy circles. This paper reviews the literature on climate forecasting information and explores three main equity implications of SCF use. First, while investment in SCF as a decision-support tool has been justified in social terms, many examples of application show that the most vulnerable are unable to benefit from SCF information and may be harmed by it. Second, the usability of SCF as a decision-making tool has been constrained by accessibility and communication issues. Third, there may be opportunity costs in the sense that focus on SCF displaces political, human and financial capital from other more effective alternatives for decreasing the vulnerability to disaster among the poor. This review argues that, without attention to specific mechanisms to counter pre-existing inequities, the distribution and use of SCF is not likely to ameliorate the conditions of those most in need.