The NATO “Defender 2020” exercise in the Baltic States: Will measured escalation lead to credible deterrence or provoke an escalation?

The Defender 2020 military exercise and its related deployments look fairly reasonable and rational from the perspective of the Baltic States and NATO, but when theoretically analyzing its options left, the Russian political leadership could react severely or enact a series of policies from such an initial “provocation”. More importantly, Russia could perceive that the Baltic Sea Region is being transformed into a potential area for confrontation from which also they could benefit from additional escalation. In the broadest sense, the article tries to both clarify and join the intentions of NATO and the reaction of Russia.