Fuzzy time series approach for disruption prediction in tokamak reactors

Disruption in a Tokamak reactor is a sudden loss of confinement that can cause damage to the machine walls and support structures. In this paper, we propose the use of a fuzzy time series (FTS) approach for detection of disruption in Tokamaks. In particular, two-factors FTS models have been exploited for the prediction of the time to disruption in the ASDEX-Upgrade machine. The concept of fuzzy logic is used taking into account that previous techniques make use of expert knowledge for deciding about the onset of a disruption.