Trade-offs and governance gaps in energy-transition minerals: An SDG interaction analysis of onshore mining, deep-sea mining, and recycling

The energy transition is raising demand for minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements at the same time as conventional onshore supply faces declining ore grades and widening projected deficits. Comparative work to date has largely examined one or two supply options in isolation, leaving the three principal pathways unscored against a common set of SDG targets. This article compares three supply pathways for energy-transition minerals—onshore mining, deep-sea mining (DSM), and recycling (“urban mining”)—and evaluates how each pathway enables or constrains progress toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The study integrates Ostrom’s Social–Ecological Systems (SES) framework with SDG interaction scoring based on the Nilsson scale, supported by a mixed-method nexus design combining evidence from LCA and processing literature, geological resource data, and governance analysis. Onshore mining is associated with declining ore grades, rising material movement and waste, and persistent risks linked to land-use change, pollution, corruption, and labor abuses, which generate negative interactions particularly for SDG 15 (Life on Land), SDG 16 (Institutions), and SDG 8.7 (Forced and child labor). DSM can reduce material throughput for some deposit types (e.g., high-grade seafloor massive sulfides) and avoid overburden removal (nodules), but introduces high uncertainty and potentially long-lasting ecological impacts in ocean habitats and exposes governance and enforcement gaps under international regulation, undermining SDG 14.1 (marine pollution prevention) and SDG 16.5 (corruption). Recycling exhibits the strongest synergies with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) through energy and emissions savings, yet is constrained by stock–flow dynamics, separation losses, and governance failures in informal e-waste handling that create health and justice harms. The analysis indicates that no single pathway closes the minerals gap without trade-offs; policy should prioritize circular economy measures, strengthen onshore supply-chain governance, and apply precautionary conditions and enforceable monitoring frameworks prior to any large-scale DSM expansion.