Key result
Risk-based sampling of sub-adult wild boar achieves ~100% detection probability with better timeliness than conventional surveillance.
Absolute Event Rate: 99.76% vs 99.95%
Risk-based approaches, such as sampling sub-adults, can provide more effective and acceptable surveillance for Classical Swine Fever in wild boar compared to conventional methods.
Risk-based sub-adult sampling may enhance CSF surveillance acceptability and timeliness in wild boar; leaves open whether it outperforms conventional strategies in practice.
Surveillance of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) should not only focus on livestock, but must also include wild boar. To prevent disease transmission into commercial pig herds, it is therefore vital to have knowledge about the disease status in wild boar. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of alternative surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in wild boar and compared them with the currently implemented conventional approach. The evaluation protocol was designed using the EVA tool, a decision support tool to help in the development of an economic and epidemiological evaluation protocol for surveillance. To evaluate the effectiveness of the surveillance strategies, we investigated their sensitivity and timeliness. Acceptability was analysed and finally, the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance strategies was determined. We developed 69 surveillance strategies for comparative evaluation between the existing approach and the novel proposed strategies. Sampling only within sub-adults resulted in a better acceptability and timeliness than the currently implemented strategy. Strategies that were completely based on passive surveillance performance did not achieve the desired detection probability of 95%. In conclusion, the results of the study suggest that risk-based approaches can be an option to design more effective CSF surveillance strategies in wild boar.
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Schulz et al. (2017) studied Classical Swine Fever (n=105,439). Risk-based surveillance (sampling sub-adults) vs. Conventional surveillance (random sampling) was evaluated on Detection probability (Sensitivity). A risk-based surveillance strategy sampling only sub-adult wild boar achieved a 99.76% detection probability and better timeliness compared to the conventional strategy.
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