A five years super‐slow aseismic precursor model for the 1994 M8.3 Hokkaido‐Toho‐Oki lithospheric earthquake based on tide gauge data

Here we present a super‐slow aseismic event model prior to the magnitude 8.3 Kurile Island (Hokkaido‐Toho‐Oki) earthquake on 4 October 1994 based on data recorded by two tide gauges, located 50–150 km from the earthquake epicenter. Both instruments recorded several cm of subsidence during a five‐year period prior to the earthquake. The observed signals are consistent with a precursory quasi‐stable slip on the western half of the Hokkaido‐Toho‐Oki fault plane. When recognized, such aseismic events can considerably improve our intermediate‐term (several years) prediction capability.