Exploring the Effects of Climate Variability on Diarrheal Diseases, Malaria, and Malnutrition in Children Under Five Years in Revuè Sub-Basin, Manica Province, Mozambique
Retrospective ecological study reveals distinct climate impacts on pediatric malaria, diarrhea, and malnutrition, highlighting environmental drivers of childhood illness.
Key Points
To assess the relationships between climate variability and rates of diarrheal disease, malaria, and acute malnutrition in children under five years of age.
Conducted an ecological, longitudinal, retrospective study across four districts in the Revuè sub-basin, Mozambique, analyzing weekly disease surveillance data and annual malnutrition records from 2016 to 2024.
Applied a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) framework to identify non-linear associations between climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and disease case counts.
Higher maximum temperatures were associated with increased cumulative malaria cases, while cumulative heavy rainfall (~100 mm/week) was associated with decreased diarrheal disease cases.
Higher prevalence of moderate acute malnutrition was significantly associated with lower annual mean total precipitation (p = 0.0062).
Higher prevalence of severe acute malnutrition was significantly associated with a decrease in annual mean temperature (p = 0.0312).