Presidential Influence in the Policymaking Process

(1989) has provided the most extensive empirical investigation of pres-idential influence. He measures influence as the congruence of presi-dential positions with congressional votes and then correlates this indi-cator of success with the resource popular support. We examine presidential influence in the broader context of the multiple roles of the president in policymaking. We analyze the impact of distinct mea-sures of preferences, resources, and persuasion on activities marking sequential stages of the policy process using calendar years 1953-85 as the unit of analysis. We define the central aspect of influence as the conversion of pref-erences into government outputs. To examine influence, we first extend previous research by identifying a set of indicators of government activity for each stage in the policy process. Second, we examine the extent to which presidential preferences influence these government actions. We assume that such influence is a function of presidential resources. That is, relationships of influence are conditioned by popu-lar and elite support and responsiveness. Third, we incorporate a pre-liminary single indicator of persuasion into the model. Persuasion is expected to act as an additional presidential resource of the conversion of preferences into governmental actions, a linkage that is also condi-tioned by resources. The analysis examines direct, indirect, and con-ditional relationships that describe the president’s influence in policy making. As a heuristic, the policy process provides the context for