Evaluating Livestock Culling Practices Using Population Projection Models in Neolithic Dalmatia

Mortality profiles derived from age-at-death estimates of archaeological animal remains reveal the outcomes of prehistoric herders slaughtering decisions. Survivorship curves from these data are often interpreted as evidence for herd management strategies optimized for meat, milk, or wool production. Spatial and temporal comparisons can illuminate variation and development in agropastoral economies, but these profiles also carry assumptions. High juvenile mortality, for instance, may compromise long-term herd viability, while interpreting survivorship as a reflection of constant offtake rates across generations can oversimplify pastoral dynamics. This study addresses these issues by modeling sheep and goat herd demography with a stage-structured Lefkovitch projection model. Culling strategies derived from Neolithic Dalmatian sites, informed by caprine age-at-death data, serve as primary constraints on herd growth. By optimizing offtake rates, the simulations evaluate how herders might have adjusted their practices to maintain herd stability amid environmental and subsistence stresses. Results show that sheep herds were generally more sustainable than goat herds, highlighting the demographic impact of differing culling regimes. The findings underscore the adaptive nature of prehistoric herd management and the importance of flexible strategies for mitigating risk and ensuring long-term sustainability.