A numerical model investigation of the storm surge of 31 January and 1 February 1953 in the North Sea

Two numerical finite difference models, developed for operational surge prediction, are used to simulate the great storm surge of 31 January/1 February 1953 in the North Sea. The required meteorological forcing is derived from an analysis of observed atmospheric pressures. Both models reproduce the surges observed at the coast with good accuracy. A discussion of the surge generation and development is presented on the basis of the model solutions. Estimates of the work done by the wind stress and by gradients of atmospheric pressure indicate that the surge was generated within the North Sea primarily by the wind. Much of the surge generation took place in a few areas of limited extent, where the strongest winds and strong currents occurred in a favourable combination.