State fragility and fractionalization in comparative perspective: religious and linguistic diversity as determinants of political vulnerability (2010−2020)

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Globalization reshapes the social fabric and institutional capacity of states through intensified cross-border flows. This study investigates the evolution and interaction of state fragility and cultural diversity across 94 countries in 2010, 2015, and 2020. State fragility is assessed via the Fragile States Index (FSI). Linguistic and religious fractionalization are measured through the Greenberg diversity formula, while polarization is quantified using the Reynal-Querol formula. Controlling for economic development, population dynamics, and spatial spillovers, the panel dataset examines shifts in fragility and diversity across countries. The Mundlak-style linear mixed model revealed that long-term, structural cultural characteristics display a robust alignment with state fragility, while short-term variations show little to no relationship. The data indicates a clear divergence between cultural dimensions The Mundlak between-country estimates reveal that long-term structural religious fractionalization is associated with greater state stability within affluent boundaries, though this relationship is absent in less affluent countries. The within-component, however, positively aligns fragility, though marginally. In contrast to this, high linguistic diversity systematically aligns with increased fragility within affluent boundaries. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that these relationships are heavily conditioned by national wealth, as rigid religious polarization displays a strong positive alignment with state weakness exclusively within less affluent settings.