Separation Analysis Methodology for Designing Area Navigation Arrival Procedures

The full benefits of Area Navigation arrival procedures are achieved when they are performed without interruption. However, current separation minima or miles-in-trail restrictions at terminal area boundaries are not sufficiently large in many instances to ensure uninterrupted execution of Area Navigation arrivals, and air traffic controllers have to frequently vector aircraft off the Area Navigation procedure to maintain separation. We present a theoretical framework, a separation analysis methodology, and a Monte Carlo Tool for the Analysis of Separation and Throughput (TASAT), which may be used to determine the target spacing at a selected intermediate metering point such that there is a desired probability that the procedure can be completed without controller intervention. TASAT includes stochastic models of various uncertainty factors such as pilot actions, aircraft weight, and winds. Numeric simulation and separation analyses were performed for a hypothetical Area Navigation arrival procedure to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology, and to investigate the relationship between target spacing, probability of uninterrupted procedure execution, and traffic throughput. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the location of the metering point and different winds.