Marathon and other road-running courses are frequently measured by means of a calibrated bicycle wheel. The process involves an initial calibration over a standard distance, followed by the course measurement itself. We would like to know how accurate this procedure is. We develop both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods of analysis, and apply them to data collected for the 1984 Olympic Games. An innovation is the use of dynamic models to cope with changes in the calibration constants.
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Smith et al. (1987) studied this question.
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