Declines and peaks in NO 2 pollution during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the New York metropolitan area

The COVID-19 pandemic created an extreme natural experiment in which sudden changes in human behavior and economic activity resulted in significant declines in nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions, immediately after strict lockdowns were imposed. Here we examined the impact of multiple waves and response phases of the pandemic on nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) dynamics and the role of meteorology in shaping relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO 2 pollution in post-pandemic New York City. Long term ( > 3.5 years), high frequency measurements from a network of ground-based Pandora spectrometers were combined with TROPOMI satellite retrievals, meteorological data, mobility trends, and atmospheric transport model simulations to quantify changes in NO 2 across the New York metropolitan area. The stringent lockdown measures after the first pandemic wave resulted in a decline in top-down NO x emissions by approx. 30 % on top of long-term trends, in agreement with sector-specific changes in NO x emissions. Ground-based measurements showed a sudden drop in total column NO 2 in spring 2020, by up to 36 % in Manhattan and 19 %–29 % in Queens, New Jersey (NJ), and Connecticut (CT), and a clear weakening (by 16 %) of the typical weekly NO 2 cycle. Extending our analysis to more than a year after the initial lockdown captured a gradual recovery in NO 2 across the NY/NJ/CT tri-state area in summer and fall 2020, as social restrictions eased, followed by a second decline in NO 2 coincident with the second wave of the pandemic and resurgence of lockdown measures in winter 2021. Meteorology was not found to have a strong NO 2 biassing effect in New York City after the first pandemic wave. Winds, however, were favorable for low NO 2 conditions in Manhattan during the second wave of the pandemic, resulting in larger column NO 2 declines than expected based on changes in transportation emissions alone. Meteorology played a key role in shaping the relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO 2 pollution in the city, with low-speed ( < 5 m s −1 ) SW-SE winds enhancing contributions from the high-emitting power-generation sector in NJ and Queens and driving particularly high NO 2 pollution episodes in Manhattan, even during – and despite – the stringent early lockdowns. These results have important implications for air quality management in New York City, and highlight the value of high resolution NO 2 measurements in assessing the effects of rapid meteorological changes on air quality conditions and the effectiveness of sector-specific NO x emission control strategies.