“Tire Operation” model: A disaster-driven hybrid framework for assessing ecological resilience and guiding spatial planning in hazard-prone communities

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Community ecosystems are increasingly vulnerable to disturbance risks due to climate change and intensified natural hazards. Existing research on ecological resilience has primarily focused on macro-scale social systems, often overlooking the interaction between disaster processes and ecological responses at the community level. This study proposes a hybrid ecological resilience assessment framework—referred to as the “Tire Operation”—based on three core capacities: ecosystem base robustness (EBR), ecosystem disaster adaptability (EDA), and ecosystem restoration potential (ERP). The assessment framework integrates ecological components (elements, structure, function) with disaster processes (pressure, state, response) to evaluate community ecological resilience across spatial and temporal scales. Using debris flow-prone communities in western Sichuan, China, the study integrates habitat quality modelling (InVEST), ecological carrying capacity analysis, ecosystem service valuation, machine learning (XGBoost), and debris flow dynamics simulation to assess resilience under a centennial disaster scenario. Results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions among EBR, EDA, and ERP. Socioeconomic development patterns reshape ecological baselines and influence EBR stability. EDA is objectively quantified through community-specific simulations, identifying vulnerable sub-watersheds requiring priority intervention. ERP relies significantly on the functional integrity of essential land types, where local degradation creates systemic recovery risks. A classification scheme with eight resilience types (T1–T8) is developed, supporting a dual-zone management strategy: adaptive enhancement and key control zones. The resilience assessment framework enables spatially explicit, dynamically responsive assessment of disaster-related ecological resilience at the community scale. It provides a replicable approach for identifying vulnerability hotspots and tailoring resilience-based risk management strategies. This research advances the integration of ecological resilience theory, disaster simulation, and actionable spatial planning for adaptive governance in hazard-prone community landscapes.