Stability of the Northern Flicker Hybrid Zone in Historical Times: Implications for Adaptive Speciation Theory

The hybrid zone between the Red- and Yellow-shafted Flickers has been stable on the United States Great Plains in historical times. This conclusion is based on multivariate comparisons of historical and contemporary collections from 18 locales. Adaptive speciation theory predicts that the hybrid zone should either become broader or narrower as a result of introgressive hybridization or reinforcement of premating isolating mechanisms. Neither of these predictions was borne out. Despite 10,000-13,000 years of hybridization, mating between subspecies remains indiscriminate. The data are also inconsistent with a dynamicequilibrium hypothesis wherein narrow hybrid zones are maintained by hybrid unfitness. According to this hypothesis, the hybrid zone would probably "flow" unless it was trapped by a population density trough. The hybrid zone does not appear to be associated with such a feature. The data are consistent with a bounded hybrid superiority theory of a hybrid zone, but this is more a question of survival in a process of elimination than a resounding corroboration.